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内房股20强半年销售额破2万亿:融信中国排名升幅居前

2018年上半年,在港上市内房股TOP20实现合约销售金额总计2.24万亿,比上年同期的1.64万亿增加了0.6万亿元,增幅达到37.23%,总体增速仍比较快。

碧桂园、万科与恒大仍然是销售额排行榜上的前三强,销售额均超过3000亿元。但三巨头的销售增速出现分化,碧桂园的半年销售额达到4124.9亿元,同比增长42.77%;而恒大和万科的增速,分别为24.62%和9.91%,均低于TOP20的平均增速。

销售排名上升最快的是融信中国,上半年合约销售金额达到545.31亿元,首次突破500亿大关,超过2017年全年的销售额。融信在内房股中的排名也快速上升至第13名,较2017年上半年提升了15个名次。

按照往常的数据,上市房企的销售高峰在下半年,通常四季度销售额在全年占比更高。上半年迅速增长的整体合约销售额显示出主要房企加快周转速度的策略已经取得成效,如果下半年维持温和增长,则全年20强房企销售额创下历史新记录是大概率事件。

以上半年销售额增速夺冠的融信为例。根据融信官微披露,其在今年上半年完成了全年1200亿目标的45.44%,超出原计划的40%。半年完成度不到50%,主要是由于公司很多项目将集中在下半年进入销售周期。

对内房股的月度销售公告数据进行统计,更能反映行业头部公司的整体变动情况,也可以观察出不同房企的排名变动,但这一数据仍然需要适当的补充和挖掘。

近年来,随着行业整合,头部房企通过并购扩大市场份额已经成为常见的经营策略。并购后的项目在当期开始并表,如果该项目在并购之前已经开始对外销售,根据港交所的信披规则,上市房企一般是不会向前追溯调整此前的公告销售数据的。

但是一些信披质量较高的房企,在自己做同口径对比时,会根据实际情况对前期数据进行相应的调整,以更客观的反应可比项目的销售对比情况。因此,按照公告披露算出的增幅可能会与房企自己按同口径计算出的增幅不同。

两个数据都具有合理性,但一个反应整体销售增速,另一个反应可比项目同口径的增长情况,差别在于统计口径。

以融信中国为例。按照公告数据统计,今年上半年合约销售额增幅达到251.50%。

但为了更准确反映销售的真实情况,避免投资者误解,融信官微披露的2018年上半年销售金额与公告数据一致,但按同口径计算的同比销售金额涨幅为75.73%。这源于融信对于披露口径进行了较为严谨的追溯。

融信中国样本:并购扩充土地资源,量价齐升迈入千亿阵营

以融信为例,排名变化和统计口径的调整也显示出内房股头部公司并购整合趋势的加强。

2017年下半年和2018年上半年,融信进行了一系列并购,土地和项目储备同步增加,这推动了公告销售额的快速增长。截至2017年末,融信的土地储备共2315万平米,较2015年末的517万平米增长了3.47倍。

即便是按融信自己在同口径计算下得出的75.73%同比增幅,这一增长速度也不算小,考虑到其他内房股如果同样按照融信的口径进行调整,剔除并表因素,大部分增速也将出现一定程度的下滑,融信在一众内房股中仍能排在前列。

除了并购提升市场份额外,融信快速增长的销售额还源于项目主要位于一线和强二线城市的核心地段,销售单价较高。下表为2018年上半年销售额500亿以上的港股内房股销售均价排名情况:

统计数据显示:2018年上半年,中国金茂和融信中国的单位销售均价分别为3.42万元每平米和2.15万元每平米,在今年上半年销售规模500亿以上内房股中分别排名前两位。中国金茂销售单价远超其他上市房企有一定的特殊性,主要由于一线城市高端项目集中销售所造成。金茂本身也拥有占比较高的商业地产和一级土地开发业务。

融信更具有代表性。融信此前提出2018年的销售目标为1200亿,要进入千亿房企的阵营。支撑这一目标的核心要素是量价齐升的销售数据和在核心城市较为充足的土地储备。

截至2017年底,融信的土地储备中在一、二线城市占比超过60%,新增土储都侧重于净人口流入及新兴产业规划的卫星城市。

融信上半年销售额的快速增长,显示出聚焦核心城市仍然是当前房企发展的有效策略。尽管三四线城市此前房地产市场增速较快,但在一线市场与核心二线城市拥有优质项目,在房地产宏观调整日益深化的大背景下,仍然是一个有效的护城河。

融信的销售增长,主要来源于上海、杭州和福州等核心市场的贡献。

沪杭市场发力:核心市场优质资产价值凸显

据克而瑞统计数据显示,2018上半年融信在杭州的权益销售金额达100.85亿元人民币,位列杭州房企第2位。

同时,融信在福州和上海两个城市的销售额在地区排行榜中分别位列第1位和第4位。融信目前主战场上的成功都得益于战略性收购地块与优秀产品质量带来的消费者口碑。

根据公开资料,2018年上半年,包括杭州永兴首府、融信澜天、融信创世纪等在内的5个项目均超额完成半年度销售目标,并且多个项目“开盘即售罄”,在杭州地产业堪称现象级事件。融信也成为杭州市场上最快实现半年销售破百亿的房企。

福州是融信的传统强势市场,销售夺冠主要体现了前期充足的资源储备和传统市场地位。而在沪杭两个城市的强势销售表现,则与此前的布局策略密切相关。

融信于2013年开始探索全国性经营,并首选进入上海和杭州这两个位于长三角区域的核心城市,随后不断加码在两个城市拿地。

2016年初在港股IPO后不久,融信就在杭州拿下两块地。2016年全年,融信中国在杭州拍下居住与综合含居住地块7块,平均成交楼面价12697.4元/平方米,平均溢价率仅19.31%。土地主要分布为6块萧山,1块余杭,且地块位置大部分都处于区域较好地段。

事实证明,融信当时在杭州大手笔拿地也是非常划算的。2018年上半年,众多其他地产公司在杭州萧山与余杭拿到地块平均成交楼面价格已经突破20000元每平米,溢价率总体在30%到50%。

由于在地价大幅上涨之前拿到了较为充足的土地储备,这为融信在杭州赢得了较为明显的竞争优势。在保证产品质量、价格公允的前提下,项目利润仍能维持在20%以上。公开资料显示:目前融信中国在杭州的项目两年间已经由2016年初的3个增加至2018年5月的28个。

融信在杭州的销售增长,不仅基于自身的项目品质和竞争优势,这与杭州近几年经济发展速度较快、人口持续净流入等外部环境密切相关。

杭州房地产市场近几年的状况,充分显示出经济发展良好的核心城市,仍然是房企的兵家必争之地。核心城市、优质地段和高品质项目,仍然是房地产市场的护城河。无独有偶,就连拿地一向谨慎的恒隆地产,前期重金高溢价在杭州拿下新地王,再次展现了这一逻辑。

另一个同样至关重要的数据是,杭州的户籍人口数量也在持续增长,2017年杭州户籍人口数为753.88万人,同比增速为2.43%。

2016年下半年,杭州也加入了限购行列,并在此后不断加码,非杭州户籍人口的购房受到限制。但过去多年持续增加的户籍人口数量形成的刚需,在某种程度上对冲了调控所带来的影响。

杭州强劲的经济实力和人口持续净流入,近期也吸引了一家久不在内地城市拿地,以风格保守著称的港资房企——恒隆集团。

已经四年未拿过地的恒隆集团,于2018年5月28日以107.3亿的价格,摘得杭州核心商业区百井坊地块。这幅地块的最终溢价率高达118%,楼面价格为55285元/平方米,成为杭州历史上最高的单价地王。

一直以来,恒隆集团以拿地风格保守著称,今年却以高溢价拍得杭州中心商业地块,这多少可以看出杭州作为新一线城市的吸引力。

从融信到恒隆,从内房股20强的销售数据到港资老牌地产商的策略变化,都在说明一个简单的道理:在跌宕起伏的房地产市场,拥有优质资产才是王道。

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